Scan the Boston Globe today and you won't find any reference to either of the candidates for Ted Kennedy's Senate seat until you reach the op ed page. There you'll see an article about women in Congress and another about Scott Browns chances of becoming next Gov. of Massachusetts. I suppose it's an already a foregone conclusion that Brown has little chance of winning the Senate seat and all his candidacy does is elevate his position for a run for Governor. According to the commentary, even there, Brown has little chance of winning and in fact his ambition is for a position in Congress.
How well he does in a Congressional race might hinge on how well he runs his Senatorial campaign. While it may give him a substantial lead over any other Republican candidates in his district, any misteps in his Senatorial campaign could just as easily lower his chances.
As things stand, Coakley is the front runner and Brown has yet to make any moves to tighten the race. Yesterday Brown signed a "no new taxes" pledge, which is really just a meaningless ploy that Republicans use to highlight their distaste of taxes. For Brown , who call himself an independant thinker and accuses Coakley of being just another Democratic party liner, the pledge just labels him as a typical Republican party liner. He also opposes the public option on the health care bill and opposes same sex marriage, which is legal in Massachusetts. Only his Pro Choice stance makes him any less typical a Republican than he claims to be.
Essentailly, given the positions of both candidates, it's really just a typical Democrat vs a typical Republican race and the voters will be voting for the party more than the individual candidates. Massachusetts voters, are open to Republicans on the local and state level, but will vote in favor of the Democrats on the national level. Both Massachusttes Democrats and Independants support a more liberal agenda on national issues.
With that being the case, should Brown use his Senatorial candidacy to secure the Republican nomination for Congress, he will still face an uphill battle to go to Washington and might serve himself better by running for State Attorney General to fill the seat that Coakley will leave vacant when she goes to Washington to become the junior Senator from Massachusetts.
Friday, December 11, 2009
Wednesday, December 9, 2009
Low voter turnout sends Martha Coakley and Scott Brown to special election to fill Ted Kennedy's seat.
Senator Ted Kennedy left behind some big shoes to fill and one would think there would have been some high profile names vying for the honor of being his successor. Teds nephew Joe declined and Congressman Barney Frank chose to stay in place in the House. Former Massachusetts Governor and Presidential candidate Mitt Romney moved his official state of residency for his Presidential run, making him ineligable for the Massachusetts seat. Romney had previously run for Senator in Massachusetts, and lost.
Martha Coakley got a head start by declaring her intent to seek the Senate seat before Kennedy had died and had more name recognition than the other Democratic candidates. The idea of a woman filling Kennedy's seat also has some added appeal. The other Democratic candidates had an uphill battle to get their names and messages out and the short campaign did not allow enough time for them to overcome Coakley's early lead.
On the Republican side, there was a surprisingly low lack of interest for the seat. Scott Brown, is known more for being married to WCVB news reporter Gail Huff and father of American Idol finalist Ayla Brown than for his political career. Latecomer to the Campaign, Jack E. Robinson curried more interest for having the name of a famous ballplayer than anything else.
I think it would have been interesting to see Robinson as the nominee as this would have been another major electoral battle between a white woman and an African American man like we saw in the Democratic Presidential Primaries and the last Massachusetts Gubernatorial race.
Massachusetts has already had an African American Senator and a Republican at that, so seating Robinson would not be as ground breaking as seating a woman would be. Robinson never posed any serious challenge to Brown and recieived a meager 17% of the vote against Browns 89%. However, Browns overwhelming victory over Robinson does not really indicate such great support for Brown. Robinson was never really a credible candidate and for all intents and purposes, Brown ran unopposed. Browns 89% (~145,000) represents less than half of Coakley's 47% (310,000+) and slightly less than the Democratic runner up Mike Capuoano's 28% (~185,000). He has a nearly insurmountable challenge to win in heavily Democratic Massachusetts.
Now that the candidates have been determined the real battle begins and we'll learn more about Coakley and Brown. But most likely, the only impact Brown will have on the race will be to challange Coakley to define her positions. What Brown has most to gain is an increase in his own profile to better position himself for other political offices, like Governor or Congressman, or maybe even Coakley's seat as State Attorney General.
Martha Coakley got a head start by declaring her intent to seek the Senate seat before Kennedy had died and had more name recognition than the other Democratic candidates. The idea of a woman filling Kennedy's seat also has some added appeal. The other Democratic candidates had an uphill battle to get their names and messages out and the short campaign did not allow enough time for them to overcome Coakley's early lead.
On the Republican side, there was a surprisingly low lack of interest for the seat. Scott Brown, is known more for being married to WCVB news reporter Gail Huff and father of American Idol finalist Ayla Brown than for his political career. Latecomer to the Campaign, Jack E. Robinson curried more interest for having the name of a famous ballplayer than anything else.
I think it would have been interesting to see Robinson as the nominee as this would have been another major electoral battle between a white woman and an African American man like we saw in the Democratic Presidential Primaries and the last Massachusetts Gubernatorial race.
Massachusetts has already had an African American Senator and a Republican at that, so seating Robinson would not be as ground breaking as seating a woman would be. Robinson never posed any serious challenge to Brown and recieived a meager 17% of the vote against Browns 89%. However, Browns overwhelming victory over Robinson does not really indicate such great support for Brown. Robinson was never really a credible candidate and for all intents and purposes, Brown ran unopposed. Browns 89% (~145,000) represents less than half of Coakley's 47% (310,000+) and slightly less than the Democratic runner up Mike Capuoano's 28% (~185,000). He has a nearly insurmountable challenge to win in heavily Democratic Massachusetts.
Now that the candidates have been determined the real battle begins and we'll learn more about Coakley and Brown. But most likely, the only impact Brown will have on the race will be to challange Coakley to define her positions. What Brown has most to gain is an increase in his own profile to better position himself for other political offices, like Governor or Congressman, or maybe even Coakley's seat as State Attorney General.
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